DAILY FILM DOSE: A Daily Film Appreciation and Review Blog: ALAN'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Friday, 20 February 2009


Ok. You’re filling out your Oscar pool today. Here’s my picks with some explanation to help you with yours:

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
It has the magic touch this year. A deserving winner though at least.

Actor: Mickey Rourke
It’s between him and Sean Penn, but Mickey had the better performance and absolutely made that film.

Actor in a Supporting Role: Heath Ledger
It’s a sure thing.

Actress: Kate Winslet
Meryl Streep had the best performance, but Winslet will win because of her performance in Revolutionary Road as well

Actress in a Supporting Role: Penelope Cruz
A last minute zeitgeist consensus

Animated Film: Wall-E
The other sure thing

Art Direction: Curious Case of Benjamin Button
A tough call between that and The Dark Knight, but the technical was the only decent thing about Benjamin Button and the film did look great

Cinematography: The Dark Knight
This will win because of its IMAX innovations

Direction: Danny Boyle
Slumdog is still on fire. He deserves the win as well

Documentary: Man on Wire
A stunning film – suspenseful and entertaining. Dark horse would be Werner Herzog’s “Encounters at the End of the World” or maybe the Katrina film "Trouble the Water"

Documentary Short: The Conscience of Nhem En
My research shows this film about the Khmer Rouge is the best of the bunch. It’s also the first name on the list for voters who choose at random

Film Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
The pacing and energy of the film was helped by the great editing

Foreign Language Film: Waltz With Bashir
It’s a great film, and the Jewish subject matter always helps. The Palme D’Or winner, “The Class” is a decent second choice.

Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Some of the best makeup work ever. This is a sure thing as well

Music (Score): Slumdog Millionaire
Such a distinct mix of western and Indian rhythms, beats the old standard orchestral sounds from the other nominees

Music (Song): “Down to Earth” Wall-E
Since the other two nominees are from Slumdog they will split the voters. Peter Gabriel will take this one

Short film (animated): La Maison en Petit Cubes
Pixar’s “Presto” would seem the natural winner because it played along with “Wall-E” in theatres. But Pixar has LOST its last four Best Animated Short Oscars. Try “La Maison en Petits Cubes”. My research shows this is a stunning film. You can watch full versions of the nominees yourself HERE:

Short film (live action): Spielzeugland (Toyland)
This Holocaust themed film should take it. Roddy Doyle’s “New Boy” is a close second.

Sound editing: The Dark Knight
Voters give the technical awards to the blockbusters

Sound mixing: The Dark Knight
Same as above

Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Aging Brad Pitt was amazing work

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Slumdog Millionaire
It’ll be part of the Slumdog sweep, but “Doubt” is my dark horse fave here.

Writing (Original Screenplay): Milk
A tough call here, but the voters need to find a place to give this film an Award, and this should be it.

Good luck!


Mark A. Fedeli said...

Hey Alan, any idea on how Springsteen didn't get nominated for song? is there some flaw in the voting or nominating process?

and on that subject, what's with Oscar's penchant for rewarding disney/showtune-style songs over, you know, creative music people actually listen to?

i think i'm still bummed Jagger didn't get nominated for Alfie. what am i missing? eligibility? and if so, that needs to change, pronto.

Alan Bacchus said...

hey Mark,
I have no idea how Springsteen slipped everyone's mind. It could easily have been an error in the production company submitting the entry forms to the Academy - who knows.

I think nowadays the Best Song Oscar was only relevant during the studio era when there were more musicals being made. Though one of the best Oscar moments was the Three-Six Mafia (rightfully) winning best song a couple years ago for Hustle and Flow.

Mark A. Fedeli said...

i agree with that, regarding 36mafia. some people were outraged and thought it was a total joke, but it was a most refreshing change.

i read somewhere that the fact that 'the wrestler' was in the closing credits, and not in the film, didn't help it's chances. but nonetheless, closing credits are eligible.

and last year, with Greenwood and TWBB, most of his songs were not written specifically for the film. so, as much as it sucked, i understood that total snubbing.

man, we need to rewrite the rules. have a great weekend!